The Shifting Security Balance in Syria: Israel's Red Lines and the Regional Power Struggle

 Although the Syrian civil war initially emerged as an internal political conflict, it has evolved over time into a multi-layered geopolitical struggle where the security interests of regional powers intersect. Following the overthrow of the Assad regime in December 2024, the balance of power in Syria was reshaped, but the country's security problems have not disappeared.


Today, one of the fundamental issues in Syria is how the new administration will establish its military and political control over the entire country, and how neighboring states will manage their own security concerns in this process.


In this context, Israel's policy towards Syria should be evaluated not only as immediate reactions to current military developments, but also in the context of border security, the Golan Heights, the resurgence of Iranian influence, the activities of armed groups, and new military structures in Syria.


The Golan Heights and Israel's Security Perception


The Golan Heights is one of the strategic regions at the heart of Israel's northern security architecture. Its geographical location provides significant advantages for Israel in terms of early warning and military surveillance.


Therefore, the change of power in Syria is not merely a political development for Israel. The emergence of new military forces in southern Syria, the deployment of armed groups along the border, or the restructuring of Iranian-linked elements are considered by Israel as potential security risks.


Therefore, to understand the fundamental logic of Israel's Syria policy, before asking "Why is Israel militarily involved in Syria?", it is necessary to ask "What developments does Israel consider unacceptable from the perspective of its own security?"


The New Security Order in Syria


Re-establishing central state authority in post-Assad Syria has not been easy. Local armed groups, tribes, and different political structures continue to exist in different regions of the country.


This situation creates uncertainty for Israel.


One of Israel's main concerns is that the power vacuum in Syria will allow Iran, Hezbollah, or other armed actors to build military infrastructure within the country, as has happened in the past.


Therefore, for Israel, the future of Syria depends not only on who is in power in Damascus, but also on whether that government can control the armed actors within the country.


Israel's Recent Air Operations


Developments in August 2026 demonstrate that Israel's security approach in Syria remains active.


On August 18, Israel launched eight airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur air base in northwestern Syria. According to Reuters, the attacks targeted runways and storage areas, and no casualties were reported. Israel justified the attack by claiming that Syria was about to violate the existing security arrangement by allowing Türkiye to deploy troops at the base. Turkey has not confirmed such a deployment.


At this point, it is necessary to separate the facts from the interpretations of Israel's justification.


The fact is: Israel conducted the airstrike.


Israel's security justification is: Turkey's use of the base for military purposes could create a new situation unacceptable to Israel's security balance in Syria.


Different actors have offered different assessments regarding the validity of this justification. While US special envoy to Syria Tom Barak described the attack as an unnecessary escalation, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz argued that the attack was backed by credible intelligence and prior warnings.

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